Merritt Much Less Likely Than Wariner To Break Johnson’s World Record
Posted by Jimmie R. Markham | July 11, 2008
PZhelev posted the following opinion on the Track & Field Message Boards:
Well, good luck to Wariner, I believe he will repeat his Olympic Gold, but let’s not forget LaShawn Meritt, who has almost equal chances, incl. for record run.
That’d be a tall order for Merritt. He’d have to improve by almost a full second to break Johnson’s record. That’s a big chunk of time to have to lop off one’s 400m PR. He did it back in 2004, but he was only 18 years old back then and inexperienced. Improvement usually comes in smaller chunks with each passing season. Here’s his 400m progression and the amount of time he’s improved each season:
2008: 43.18 (-0.78) (if Merritt were to tie Johnson’s WR)
2007: 43.96 (-0.18)
2006: 44.14 (-0.52)
2005: 44.66 (-0.59)
2004: 45.25 (-2.65)
2003: 47.90
Although Wariner’s latest performances don’t indicate that he’s ready for a record run, his progression suggests that he’s got a much better chance than Merritt of breaking Johnson’s record this year:
2008: 43.18 (-0.27) (if Wariner were to tie Johnson’s WR)
2007: 43.45 (-0.17)
2006: 43.62 (-0.31)
2005: 43.93 (-0.07)
2004: 44.00 (-1.13)
2003: 45.13 (-0.44)
2002: 45.57
Photo courtesy of JeremyWariner.com.
Topics: Blog, Sprints/Hurdles |